Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging year

Ireland's GDP is thereafter forecast to pick up to 3.0% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025.

Following its peak of 8.1% in 2022, consumer price inflation is set to moderate throughout 2024 and reach 2.1% in 2025.

The government budget surplus is projected to shrink in 2023 and 2024, before rebounding at around 1% of GDP in 2025.

Read the full forecast for Ireland.

The Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast finds that the European economy has lost momentum this year against the background of a high cost of living, weak external demand and monetary tightening. While economic activity is expected to gradually recover going forward, the forecast revises EU GDP growth down compared to its summer projections. Inflation is estimated to have dropped to a two-year low in the euro area in October and is set to continue declining over the forecast horizon. 

Overall, the Autumn Forecast projects GDP growth in 2023 at 0.6% in both the EU and the euro area, 0.2 percentage points below the Commission's summer forecast. In 2024, EU GDP growth is forecast to improve to 1.3%. This is still a downward revision of 0.1 pps. from the summer. In the euro area, GDP growth is projected to be slightly lower, at 1.2%. In 2025, with inflation and the drag from monetary tightening subsiding, growth is expected to strengthen to 1.7% for the EU and 1.6% for the euro area. 

More Information

European Commission press release: Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast - A modest recovery ahead after a challenging year

Full document: Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast

Forecast for Ireland