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Representation in Ireland
News article15 November 2023Representation in Ireland1 min read

Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging year

Following strong growth in 2022, Ireland's GDP is expected to decline by 0.9% in 2023 amid developments in multinational-dominated sectors and normalising domestic demand, according to the Commission’s Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast released today.

Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast for Ireland - table showing figures for 2023, 2024 and 2025 for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, general government balance, gross public debit and current account balance

Ireland's GDP is thereafter forecast to pick up to 3.0% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025.

Following its peak of 8.1% in 2022, consumer price inflation is set to moderate throughout 2024 and reach 2.1% in 2025.

The government budget surplus is projected to shrink in 2023 and 2024, before rebounding at around 1% of GDP in 2025.

Read the full forecast for Ireland.

The Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast finds that the European economy has lost momentum this year against the background of a high cost of living, weak external demand and monetary tightening. While economic activity is expected to gradually recover going forward, the forecast revises EU GDP growth down compared to its summer projections. Inflation is estimated to have dropped to a two-year low in the euro area in October and is set to continue declining over the forecast horizon. 

Overall, the Autumn Forecast projects GDP growth in 2023 at 0.6% in both the EU and the euro area, 0.2 percentage points below the Commission's summer forecast. In 2024, EU GDP growth is forecast to improve to 1.3%. This is still a downward revision of 0.1 pps. from the summer. In the euro area, GDP growth is projected to be slightly lower, at 1.2%. In 2025, with inflation and the drag from monetary tightening subsiding, growth is expected to strengthen to 1.7% for the EU and 1.6% for the euro area. 


More Information

European Commission press release: Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast - A modest recovery ahead after a challenging year

Full document: Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast

Forecast for Ireland


Publication date
15 November 2023
Representation in Ireland