However, the high uncertainty and deterioration in global trading conditions are expected to detract from growth. Moreover, Ireland’s deep economic ties to the US pose notable downward risks in the context of rising protectionism. The general government balance is forecast to remain in surplus, though significant risks arise from the uncertain outlook for corporate tax revenues.
The Commission estimates that the EU economy began 2025 on a somewhat stronger footing than anticipated. It is projected to keep growing at a modest rate this year, with growth expected to pick up in 2026, despite heightened global policy uncertainty and trade tensions.
The Commission's Spring 2025 Economic Forecast projects real GDP to grow by 1.1% in 2025 in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area, broadly the same pace as recorded in 2024. In 2026, growth is expected to accelerate to 1.5% in the EU and 1.4% in the euro area. Headline inflation in the euro area is expected to slow down from 2.4% in 2024 to an average of 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. In the EU, inflation is set to follow similar dynamics from a slightly higher level in 2024, falling just below 2% in 2026.
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Details
- Publication date
- 19 May 2025
- Author
- Representation in Ireland