Ireland’s GDP is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2024, mainly due to a contraction in the multinational sector in the first half of the year, according to the European Commission’s Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast released today. Economic activity is projected to rebound with growth of 4.0% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 supported by a strong labour market, low headline inflation and favourable external environment. Headline inflation is set to remain low over the forecast horizon. Public finances are forecast to normalise after further positive surprises in revenues and strong increases in expenditure.
After a prolonged period of stagnation, the EU economy is returning to modest growth, while the disinflation process continues. The European Commission's Autumn Forecast projects GDP growth in 2024 at 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. Economic activity is forecast to accelerate to 1.5% in the EU and to 1.3% in the euro area in 2025, and to 1.8% in the EU and 1.6% in the euro area in 2026.
Headline inflation in the euro area is set to more than halve in 2024, from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.4%, before easing more gradually to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. In the EU, the disinflation process is projected to be even sharper in 2024, with headline inflation falling to 2.6%, from 6.4% in 2023, and to continue easing to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
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- Publication date
- 15 November 2024
- Author
- Representation in Ireland